2.05.2008

"Obama" versus "Clinton" blogosphere share of voice

Just for fun ...the spikes are amazing. Both IceRocket and Blogpulse are reporting 1%+ share of voice for each of "Obama" and "Clinton". Go figure where it's going to be at by November. The Web's transparency and fluidity is democratizing ... democracy.



English posts that contain Obama per day for the last 30 days.
Technorati Chart


Posts that contain Clinton per day for the last 30 days.
Technorati Chart


No wonder kids are engaging into politics more than a generation ago.





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11.18.2007

Sentiment analysis and consumer generated content

Sentiment Analysis draws on computational linguistic, information retrieval, data mining, natural language processing, machine learning, statistics and predictive analysis to transform unstructured online dialog into marketing insights about companies, products and issues. Web 2.0 was about collective intelligence; Web 3.0 is about connecting knowledge, making the proliferation of user generated content one of the main drivers behind the emergence of the Sentiment Analysis discipline. Sentiment analysis is on the verge to making eCommerce and Online Advertising a whole lot more efficient.

44% of Internet users are content creators according to PEW. Who are they? Angry customers, consumer activists, competitors and more, contributing thoughts and media to the online world. 12% of Internet users have posted comments on blogs. A Zoomerang survey reports that 78% recently voted and rated compared with 47% two years ago. 44% have recently commented on a forum or blog compared to 23% two years ago. 28% have recently written a review versus 15% two years ago.

What are the drivers behind the CGM growth? There is clearly a democratization of revenue share models underway, although being compensated is not a primary driver according to Peter Turner. So, why are users generating content online? Authoring content online has become a basic consumer need of expression, leveraging media fragmentation and device proliferation. Some Internet users just love the attention, educating and influencing, feeling part of a community and creating a dialog. The emergence of social networks' architecture of participation describing systems designed for user contribution, vertical communities, Q&A platforms have accelerated this trend in a significant way. Summize already aggregates over 22 million reviews by over 3 million reviewers. Wikipedia passed 2 million English language articles in September. The blogosphere has been doubling in size every 6 months. YouTube gets about 8 hours of video upload every minute. With increasingly easy to use publishing tools like blogs and RSS feeds, everyone can be an author. Information consumers are becoming producers, driving a significant marketing shift. Marketing is not anymore about "convincing" but about "influence". Recommendations from consumers are trusted by 78% of respondents according to Nielsen.

Traditional advertising is broken. If folks talked to you like TV commercials do, you would punch them in the face! Traditional information sources are facing trust erosion and message dilution challenges. 80% of consumers prefer asking friends or relatives to report on products rather than relying on the brands themselves (PQ Media). 98% of respondents found online reviews credible and 82% have bought at least one product as a result of them (Deloitte). In contrast, 4% highly trust content and opinions from vendors or advertisers. Word-of-mouth is a very powerful selling tool and is generally positive toward brands. PQ Media reports about 3.5 billion brand conversations online each day, making WOM marketing the fastest-growing alternative media segment. Advertising spending will reach $20 billion this year and eCommerce is on track for a $200 billions year. More than 70% of users rely on online reviews. 82% of consumers who read product reviews online, say purchase decisions have been directly influenced by the reviews. 69% of consumers who read reviews, share them, amplifying the impact (Deloitte).

People influence each other’s behavior in many ways, voting, crowd dynamics, following fashions and joining fads. Social influence is particularly relevant to consumer behavior because people aspire to what other people have and rely on other's knowledge and experience. Driving, wearing, reading, listening to the same things builds social identity and promotes cultural cohesion. So, what is the impact of social influence? One in ten Americans tells the other nine what to wear, where to eat and what to buy, according to Keller Fay. Few important trends reach the mainstream without passing through the Influentials in the early stages, and the Influentials can make or break a brand. Brand managers and advertisers already took notice, moving from testing word-of-mouth marketing to including it as a growing component of fully-integrated campaigns.Spending on social media and “conversational marketing” will surpass traditional marketing spending by the end of 2012 according to a TWI Surveys. WOM is expected to reach more than $1 billion in '07 and will show compound growth rates of about 30% through 2011 to reach $3.7 billion.

Now, no human being can read through this content and make sense of it fast enough. SentiMetrix has developed an innovative scientific and technology framework to measure sentiments or opinions expressed in electronic media, combining data gathering with sophisticated entity extraction and real time text analytics to track opinions. Sentiment Analysis is emerging as the definitive brand monitoring platform. Andiamo Systems already provides tools that help identify, measure, understand and act on consumer attitudes toward brands. BuzzLogic surfaces leading online conversations, unlocking precision semantic targeting leading to between 2X and 4X traditional online advertising conversion rates. Advertisers and marketers agree that "Engagement" is the right metric for this new social media paradigm, although nobody agrees on a definition nor how to measure. Sentiment Analysis and Tone polarity scoring will emerge as the "Engagement" metric that advertisers and marketers can quantify.


Sentiment analysis and consumer generated media slides

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9.13.2007

Facebook catching up on MySpace

Facebook is on a trend to closing some of the gap with Myspace's traffic. MySpace made the open and distributed widget economy flourish but Facebook has managed to successfully position itself as a platform; both inviting the community to add apps incremental value. If Search is the Internet OS, Facebook is the middleware!
Even though MySpace has over twice as many visitors as Facebook (Compete, QuantCast ), Facebook is growing a lot faster. With 1 in 8 users worldwide visiting MySpace.com in any given month, the social network remains an incredible success story of adoption in an industry in its infancy. This said, MySpace could have reached critical mass and now most of its growth potential, getting closer to saturation with its current value proposition? Already 55% of online teens have profiles online according to PEW. Adding incremental unique visitors beyond a certain point becomes expensive for a traffic harder to convert and of poorer quality to advertisers. Engagement metrics look about the same although still in favor of MySpace. Compete shows more pages per visit for Myspace at 55 versus 44 for FaceBook but the gap is closing.


Traffic and Buzz converge. Nielsen BuzzMetrics Blogpulse shows blog references to "myspace" still outnumbers "facebook" although the gap is closing. IceRocket also confirms the trend with 2,007 posts including the term "facebook" over the past 3 months versus 6,413 for "myspace".




Queries can be split many ways of which isolating i) navigation vs informational vs transactional queries and ii) convenience-based vs preference are only two behavioral dimensions. Enough navigational queries take place in search boxes to also extract some directional insights from Google Trends. Google's search volume confirms Facebook closing the gap on MySpace as well.
Now, not all user generated opinion is good. Playing around with OpinMind, MySpace still has a much more positive "Sentimeter" than Facebook. This said, I would not conclude that fast that MySpace drives more satisfaction, engagement for that much. Different demographics makes them apples and oranges. The Sentimeter displays the relative number of positive and negative opinions identified by Opinmind's automated search processes ... just another data point. It would be interesting to see OpinMind's trend.




And now for more fun, I passed both through the sucks-rocks grounder to put FaceBook on top again.

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